On December 9, 2025, the publication of the Trump administration's new National Security Strategy marked a historic turning point: as in Munich in 1938, a major democratic power accepted the dismemberment of a free country to appease a dictator. Ukraine was abandoned to Moscow, and Europe was left alone to face Russia . This American betrayal confronted Europe with a choice: allow Ukraine to hold out and win by mobilizing €210 billion in frozen Russian assets; or face the catastrophic consequences of a Russian victory by spending €2 trillion.

The true cost of a Russian victory: a bill 10 times greater than the reparation loan guaranteed by frozen Russian assets.

A repair loan, which can be approved by a qualified majority of EU member states alone, does not create any new debt. Unlike borrowing on the markets, which would cost between €27 billion and €42 billion in interest over ten years depending on the amount borrowed, the repair loan has no impact on national public deficits and does not lead to any increase in European public debt.

On the other hand, allowing Ukraine to collapse due to lack of funding has been estimated at nearly 2 trillion euros by international organizations (World Bank, NATO, IMF).

Even considering only the low-end scenario, it will be necessary to ensure:

- the cost of 10 to 15 million additional Ukrainian refugees (€200 billion),

- Armament spending increasing from 3% to 4.5% of GDP (€1030 billion),

- the costs of deploying troops (€30 billion) to the borders of Europe (Moldova, the Balkans, the Baltic States),

- the increase in energy expenditure (€250 billion),

- the cost of security guarantees provided to unoccupied Ukraine (€180 billion)

- the amount needed for the reconstruction of the remaining Ukrainian territory (€300 billion)

A loan that would prove decisive for the outcome of the war

Ukraine's financial reserves will reach their critical threshold in April-May 2026: the government will no longer be able to pay civil servants and military personnel, vital imports (medicines, energy, food) will stop and the front will collapse due to lack of pay and ammunition.

Russia, for its part, finds itself in a far more precarious situation than appearances suggest. Its truly liquid assets (foreign currencies and readily available gold), which stood at USD 113.5 billion in January 2022, amounted to only USD 54 billion in December 2025. At a rate of USD 10-12 billion per month, according to economists from RANEPA (the Russian Presidential Academy) and the Gaidar Institute, this liquidity fund will be depleted between June and December 2026.

With the Russian economy having been entirely converted to war production, any change of course would take years and would cause internal economic and social collapse (layoffs, reductions in military pay, etc.). Therefore, when Russia reaches the depletion of its liquid sovereign wealth fund, it will have no other option than to negotiate.

If it is deprived of the reparation loan, Ukraine will fall in April-May 2026, just a few months before the depletion of Russian resources.

The international consensus of the best legal experts

The memorandum from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (May 2024), signed by 11 eminent international jurists including the two Belgian professors, concludes unambiguously that it is lawful "under international law for States that have frozen Russian assets to take countermeasures in the form of transfers of these assets as compensation for damages"

The articles on State responsibility for internationally wrongful acts (adopted by the UN in 2001), which codify the law of countermeasures, impose, in effect, three conditions that must be met by the loan:

1. Serious violation of international law

o Confirmed by three UN resolutions and an ICJ order (March 16, 2022)

2. Proportionality

o Estimated Ukrainian damages: USD 1 trillion

o Russian assets mobilized: €210 billion (22% of the damages)

3. Reversibility

If Russia pays the reparations, the amount of its assets will be

refunded

Any excess will be refunded.

The reparation loan is an ingenious mechanism: the assets formally remain Russian property legally, but are immediately transferred to Ukraine as an interest-free loan. By avoiding the term "confiscation" and certain legal debates about sovereign immunity, the reparation loan allows prudent governments to adopt it without feeling they are violating property rights.

Our association fully supports this proposal by Ursula von der Leyen.